Predicting the winner of the UEFA Europa League for the 2024-25 season is tricky, especially since we’re only partway through the competition as of today. The league phase is wrapping up soon, and the knockout stages are about to kick off, so a lot can still change. That said, I can give you a rundown based on current form, standings, and some expert projections.
Right now, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United from the Premier League are looking strong. Tottenham’s sitting at 4th in the league phase with 17 points, and Manchester United’s at 3rd with 18 points—both have already secured spots in the round of 16. Tottenham’s been on a roll with back-to-back wins early on, and analysts like those at Opta have pegged them as Favorites with a 15.1% chance of lifting the trophy after Matchday 2. Manchester United, despite some inconsistent starts with draws, still have a solid shot, though their odds have dipped to around 4.9% per Opta’s supercomputer after those results.
Then there’s Lazio, topping the league phase with 19 points and a whopping +13 goal difference. They’ve won six out of seven matches, and their consistency has boosted their chances to 13.6% in Opta’s simulations. Porto, another contender, was initially favored at 17.8% before the season started, but they’re struggling at 25th with only 8 points, so their path looks tougher unless they pull off a miracle in the final matchday.
Teams like Athletic Bilbao and Eintracht Frankfurt are also in the mix, both with 17 points and a +6 goal difference, but they’d need a big swing to overtake Lazio for the top spot. Slavia Prague, Galatasaray, and Real Sociedad have been mentioned as dark horses too, with varying degrees of success so far.
Given all this, Tottenham might have the edge right now due to their form and direct qualification, but Lazio’s dominance in the league phase makes them a serious threat. Manchester United’s experience in big moments could also carry them far. It’s too close to call definitively—knockout football is unpredictable, and injuries, tactics, or a single off-day can flip everything. If I had to pick one today, I’d lean toward Tottenham based on their current momentum, but don’t sleep on Lazio or United. What do you think—who’s your pick?
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